ACUS48 KWNS 230835
SWOD48
SPC AC 230835
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0335 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
VALID 261200Z - 311200Z
...DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS IN RELATIVELY POOR AGREEMENT EVEN EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...PARTICULARLY WITH HANDLING OF THE EVOLUTION OF THE WRN
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WEAKENING OF THE CENTRAL U.S. RIDGE AS PIECES
OF THE WRN TROUGH EJECT EWD INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS.
THE GFS IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE IN BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE DAYS 4-5
/SUN. AND MON./ THAN THE ECMWF...THUS SHIFTING THE SURFACE TROUGH
EWD INTO THE PLAINS.
LATER...BOTH MODELS REDEVELOP THE WRN RIDGE...BUT AGAIN -- THE GFS
IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS PIECE OF ENERGY...SHIFTING IT
INTO THE PLAINS BY DAY 7 WHILE THE ECMWF MAINTAINS A MUCH
DEEPER/SLOWER-MOVING WRN TROUGH -- AND THUS RIDGING OVER THE PLAINS
UNTIL DAY 8.  
IN WHAT MANNER THESE EJECTIONS OF WRN U.S. ENERGY INTO THE PLAINS
OCCUR WILL LARGELY MODULATE DEGREE OF SEVERE POTENTIAL.  ATTM -- IT
APPEARS THAT EVEN WITH THE MORE AGGRESSIVE GFS...DEGREE OF SEVERE
POTENTIAL SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LIMITED THROUGH AT LEAST DAY 6. 
WHILE THREAT COULD INCREASE SOMETIME IN THE DAY 7-8 TIME
FRAME...DEGREE OF MODEL INCONSISTENCY PRECLUDES INCLUSION OF A
THREAT AREA THIS FORECAST.
..GOSS.. 05/23/2013